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On The Current Stock market, Trends, Opportunities

Author: JC, Last updated on 2023-04-22
On Tesla:

My thought is, if Tesla were to drop to 140s, it might just as well be oversold and down to the 130s range. Too many people are waiting for 100~120s to buy, so I am not sure it will stay there for long. Also, if Tesla drops down pretty big, it will happen in the next couple of months, probably from now till June-ish. That's the worst you can get.

On Nasdsq/QQQ:

QQQ has tried two times to dip below the 20 day moving average. It looks to me that it will eventually break it and go down to fill the 309 gap. So, next week I think it is likely coming down. I might add some SQQQ to hedge against my long positions (if I can't sell my Tesla position, also my other growth tech positions).

On the General Stock Market Trend / Possible Market Crash:

I don't think there will be a market crash, by the way. There is no catalyst I can think of that will crash the market. Also, we ARE already in a recession. It is not like recession is coming in the coming months. Maybe, the worst earning season is right now. Lot of people will miss the boat by looking forward to a huge market crash, that's just ridiculous. 2008 Lehman moment unlikely happen again because it has already happened. (If something is so obvious and everybody is talking about it, would you think the market is unaware of it?)

I am thinking of a 10% market correction, S&P back to the 3800s or worst case, test the prior low of last year. That's probably about it.

The layoffs are pretty big numbers, but a lot of big tech layoffs are just trimming the excess hires during the pandemic. Also, when China reopens fully, it will reduce the inflationary pressure for the U.S. So, it is a toss up really. U.S. is likely entering into a stagflation period. That's not too bad for the equity market.

Just look at YouTube, so many negative talks, My God, it is like the world is ending, haha. As long as many YouTubers are negative, market will not crash I guess.

Because everyone is gonna put on shorts and next you know what? They are gonna be squeezed. That's the danger of today's market.

Anyway, I am not questioning about a market correction, it is likely to happen in May. Just been skeptical about a market crash, like a 2008 style crash.

I just don't see a steep decline.
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